La demanda del turismo europeo sobre Andalucía medida a través de los alojamientos hoteleros en 2017: un modelo de gravedad

Javier Sánchez-Rivas García, María Dolores Pérez-Hidalgo, María del Pópulo Pablo-Romero Gil-Delgado, José Antonio Camúñez-Ruiz

Resumen

La demanda turística sobre Andalucía (región al sur de España), desde los países europeos, es medida a través del número de turistas alojados en establecimientos hoteleros, para el año 2017. Un modelo econométrico de gravedad sencillo explica dicha demanda, usando elasticidades, a través del PIB de cada país y de la distancia en kilómetros desde dicho país a Andalucía. La obtención de pendiente cercana a la unidad con respecto al PIB nos permite definir una nueva variable, la demanda relativizada por el PIB, y modelizar la misma a partir de la distancia. La pendiente negativa de esta nueva modelización permite plantear la formulación de políticas que minimicen el factor distancia de los países europeos a Andalucía si se quiere incrementar la demanda.

Palabras clave

Andalucía; demanda turística; modelos de gravedad; PIB; distancia en kilómetros

Texto completo:

PDF (509,64 kB) Estadísticas

Referencias

Aitken, N. D. (1973). The Effect of the EEC and EFTA on European Trade: A Temporal Cross-Section Analysis. American Economic Review, 63, 881-892.

Alawin, M., Abu-Lila, Z. (2016). Uncertainty and Gravity Model for international Tourism Demand in Jordan: Evidence from Panel-GARCH model. Applied Econometrics and International Development, 16 (1), 131-146.

Anas, A. (1983). Discrete choice theory, information theory, and the multinomial logit and gravity models. Transportation Research, 17, 13-23.

Anderson, J. (1979). A Theoretical Foundation for the Gravity Equation. American Economic Review, 69, 106-116.

Arezki, R., Cherif, R., Piotrowski, J. (2009). Tourism Specialization and Economic Development: Evidence from the UNESCO world Heritage List. IMF Working Paper, Wp/09/176.

Bergstrand, J. (1985). The Gravity Equation in International Trade: Some Microeconomic Foundations and Empirical Evidence. Review of Economics and Statistics, 67, (3), 474-481.

Bergstrand, J. (1989). The Generalized Gravity Equation, Monopolistic Competition, and the Factor-Proportions Theory in International Trade. Review of Economics and Statistics, 71, (1), 143-153.

Brakman, S., Garretsen, H., Van Marrewijk, C. (2001). An Introduction to Geographical Economics. Cambridge University Press.

Fourie, J., Rosselló, J. (2015). Religion, Religious Diversity and Tourism. Kyklos, 68 (1), 51-64.

Fourie, J., Santana-Gallego, M. (2011). The impact of mega-sport events on tourist arrivals. Tourism Management, 32, 1364-1370.

Freytag, A., Vietze, C. (2010). Can Nature Promote Development? The Role of Sustainable Tourism for Economic Growth. Jena Economic Research Paper 08/2010, 1-32.

Fujita, M., Thisse, J. F. (2002). Economics of Agglomeration–Cities, Industrial Location, and Regional Growth. Cambridge University Press.

Gerakis, A. S. (1965). Effect of Exchange-rate Devaluations and Revaluations on Receipts from Tourism. International Monetary Fund Staff Papers, 12, 365-384.

Gray, H. P. (1966). The Demand for International Travel by United states and Canada. International Economic Review, 7, 83-92.

Guthrie, H. W. (1961). Demand for Tourists’ Goods and Services in a World Market. Papers and Proceedings of the Regional Science Association. 7, 159-175.

Isard, W. (1956). Location and the Space Economy. John Wiley, New York.

Kaplan, F., and Aktas, A. R. (2016). The Turkey Tourism Demand: A Gravity Model. The Empirical Economics Letters, 15(3), 265-272.

Keum, K. (2010). Tourism flows and trade theory: a panel data analysis with the gravity model. The Annals of Regional Science, 44(3), 541-557.

Khadaroo, J., Seetanah, B. (2008). The role of transport infrastructure in international tourism development: A gravity model approach. Tourism Management, 29, 831-840.

Matias, Á. (2004). Gravity and the tourism trade: the case for Portugal. Sustainable Tourism, F. D. Pineda, C. A. Brebbia & M. Mugica (Editors), 47-64.

Morley, C., Rosselló, J., and Santana-Gallego, M. (2014). Gravity models for tourism demand: theory and use. Annals of Tourism Research, 48, 1-10.

Perles-Ribes, J. F., Ramón-Rodríguez, A. B., Moreno-Izquierdo, L., Torregrosa Martí, M. T. (2016). Winners and losers in the Arab uprisings: a Mediterranean tourism perspective. Current Issues in Tourism. dx.doi.org/10.1080/13683500.2016.1225697

Pöyhönen, P. (1963). A Tentative Model for the Volume of Trade Between Countries. Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, 90 (1), 93-99.

Reilly, W. (1931). The Law of Retail Gravitation. New York, Pillsbury.

Santeramo, F. G., Morelli, M. (2016). Modelling tourism flows through gravity models: a quantile regression approach. Current Issues in Tourism, 19 (11), 1077-1083.

Song, H., Li, G. (2008). Tourism Demand Modeling and Forecasting. A Review of Resent Research. Tourism Management, 29, 203-220.

Tinbergen, J. (1962). Shaping the World Economy: Suggestions for an International Economic Policy. New York, Twentieth Century Fund.




DOI: https://doi.org/10.14198/INTURI2019.18.06





Copyright (c) 2019 Javier Sánchez-Rivas García, María Dolores Pérez-Hidalgo, María del Pópulo Pablo-Romero Gil-Delgado, José Antonio Camúñez-Ruiz

Licencia de Creative Commons
Este obra está bajo una licencia de Creative Commons Reconocimiento 4.0 Internacional.