La demanda del turismo europeo sobre Andalucía medida a través de los alojamientos hoteleros en 2017: un modelo de gravedad

Autores/as

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.14198/INTURI2019.18.06

Palabras clave:

Andalucía, demanda turística, modelos de gravedad, PIB, distancia en kilómetros

Resumen

La demanda turística sobre Andalucía (región al sur de España), desde los países europeos, es medida a través del número de turistas alojados en establecimientos hoteleros, para el año 2017. Un modelo econométrico de gravedad sencillo explica dicha demanda, usando elasticidades, a través del PIB de cada país y de la distancia en kilómetros desde dicho país a Andalucía. La obtención de pendiente cercana a la unidad con respecto al PIB nos permite definir una nueva variable, la demanda relativizada por el PIB, y modelizar la misma a partir de la distancia. La pendiente negativa de esta nueva modelización permite plantear la formulación de políticas que minimicen el factor distancia de los países europeos a Andalucía si se quiere incrementar la demanda.

Financiación

Andalucía, demanda turística, modelos de gravedad, PIB, distancia en kilómetros

Citas

Aitken, N. D. (1973). The Effect of the EEC and EFTA on European Trade: A Temporal Cross-Section Analysis. American Economic Review, 63, 881-892.

Alawin, M., Abu-Lila, Z. (2016). Uncertainty and Gravity Model for international Tourism Demand in Jordan: Evidence from Panel-GARCH model. Applied Econometrics and International Development, 16 (1), 131-146.

Anas, A. (1983). Discrete choice theory, information theory, and the multinomial logit and gravity models. Transportation Research, 17, 13-23.

Anderson, J. (1979). A Theoretical Foundation for the Gravity Equation. American Economic Review, 69, 106-116.

Arezki, R., Cherif, R., Piotrowski, J. (2009). Tourism Specialization and Economic Development: Evidence from the UNESCO world Heritage List. IMF Working Paper, Wp/09/176.

Bergstrand, J. (1985). The Gravity Equation in International Trade: Some Microeconomic Foundations and Empirical Evidence. Review of Economics and Statistics, 67, (3), 474-481.

Bergstrand, J. (1989). The Generalized Gravity Equation, Monopolistic Competition, and the Factor-Proportions Theory in International Trade. Review of Economics and Statistics, 71, (1), 143-153.

Brakman, S., Garretsen, H., Van Marrewijk, C. (2001). An Introduction to Geographical Economics. Cambridge University Press.

Fourie, J., Rosselló, J. (2015). Religion, Religious Diversity and Tourism. Kyklos, 68 (1), 51-64.

Fourie, J., Santana-Gallego, M. (2011). The impact of mega-sport events on tourist arrivals. Tourism Management, 32, 1364-1370.

Freytag, A., Vietze, C. (2010). Can Nature Promote Development? The Role of Sustainable Tourism for Economic Growth. Jena Economic Research Paper 08/2010, 1-32.

Fujita, M., Thisse, J. F. (2002). Economics of Agglomeration–Cities, Industrial Location, and Regional Growth. Cambridge University Press.

Gerakis, A. S. (1965). Effect of Exchange-rate Devaluations and Revaluations on Receipts from Tourism. International Monetary Fund Staff Papers, 12, 365-384.

Gray, H. P. (1966). The Demand for International Travel by United states and Canada. International Economic Review, 7, 83-92.

Guthrie, H. W. (1961). Demand for Tourists’ Goods and Services in a World Market. Papers and Proceedings of the Regional Science Association. 7, 159-175.

Isard, W. (1956). Location and the Space Economy. John Wiley, New York.

Kaplan, F., and Aktas, A. R. (2016). The Turkey Tourism Demand: A Gravity Model. The Empirical Economics Letters, 15(3), 265-272.

Keum, K. (2010). Tourism flows and trade theory: a panel data analysis with the gravity model. The Annals of Regional Science, 44(3), 541-557.

Khadaroo, J., Seetanah, B. (2008). The role of transport infrastructure in international tourism development: A gravity model approach. Tourism Management, 29, 831-840.

Matias, Á. (2004). Gravity and the tourism trade: the case for Portugal. Sustainable Tourism, F. D. Pineda, C. A. Brebbia & M. Mugica (Editors), 47-64.

Morley, C., Rosselló, J., and Santana-Gallego, M. (2014). Gravity models for tourism demand: theory and use. Annals of Tourism Research, 48, 1-10.

Perles-Ribes, J. F., Ramón-Rodríguez, A. B., Moreno-Izquierdo, L., Torregrosa Martí, M. T. (2016). Winners and losers in the Arab uprisings: a Mediterranean tourism perspective. Current Issues in Tourism. dx.doi.org/10.1080/13683500.2016.1225697

Pöyhönen, P. (1963). A Tentative Model for the Volume of Trade Between Countries. Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, 90 (1), 93-99.

Reilly, W. (1931). The Law of Retail Gravitation. New York, Pillsbury.

Santeramo, F. G., Morelli, M. (2016). Modelling tourism flows through gravity models: a quantile regression approach. Current Issues in Tourism, 19 (11), 1077-1083.

Song, H., Li, G. (2008). Tourism Demand Modeling and Forecasting. A Review of Resent Research. Tourism Management, 29, 203-220.

Tinbergen, J. (1962). Shaping the World Economy: Suggestions for an International Economic Policy. New York, Twentieth Century Fund.

Estadísticas

Estadísticas en RUA

Publicado

03-12-2019

Cómo citar

Sánchez-Rivas García, J., Pérez-Hidalgo, M. D., Pablo-Romero Gil-Delgado, M. del P., & Camúñez-Ruiz, J. A. (2019). La demanda del turismo europeo sobre Andalucía medida a través de los alojamientos hoteleros en 2017: un modelo de gravedad. Investigaciones Turísticas, (18), 119–137. https://doi.org/10.14198/INTURI2019.18.06

Número

Sección

Artículos